US container ports will handle a projected 2 million TEU in November, down 1% year-over-year, according to the Global Port Tracker forecast produced for the National Retail Federation (NRF) — the clearest signal yet that the 2026 peak shipping season has already run its course.

August set the high-water mark for the year. Ports tracked by the report handled 2.3 million TEU that month, up 0.4% from July but down 0.7% against August 2025. September volumes are forecast at 2.28 million TEU, still an 8.2% increase on the same month last year.

For apparel and soft-goods importers, the practical takeaway is blunt: the window for inbound holiday inventory has closed, and the next months are replenishment and early-2027 planning.

When did the peak season actually happen?

Earlier and longer than usual, according to NRF supply chain and customs policy vice president Jonathan Gold. "Even with any fluctuations in final data, we're likely past the busiest part of the year," Gold said. "The truth is that the peak season started early and was stretched out through the summer and early fall, with the difference from month to month often amounting to little more than a rounding error."

He added: "Most holiday merchandise has arrived, and the remainder of the year is just a matter of last-minute replenishment and preparation for early 2027."

That pattern matters for factory scheduling in sourcing countries. A stretched, front-loaded peak compresses the traditional August–October rush and shifts order timing earlier in the calendar — a structural change importers and their suppliers have now absorbed across two consecutive peak cycles.

What do the monthly numbers show?

The forecast points to a gradual reversion to typical post-peak levels:

• October 2026: 2.25 million TEU, up 8.5% year-over-year
• November 2026: 2 million TEU, down 1%
• December 2026: 2.02 million TEU, up 0.6%
• January 2027: 2.07 million TEU, down 1.9%
• February 2027: 1.92 million TEU, up 1%

Full-year 2026 volume is projected at 25.8 million TEU, up 1.4% from the 25.4 million TEU recorded in 2025. The first half of 2026 moved 12.7 million TEU, a 1.1% year-over-year increase.

Is the consumer holding up?

Volumes remain robust, but the underlying economy is not. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, which produces the data analysis behind the tracker, flagged the divergence: "core economic indicators are broadly flat or weakening slightly month over month recently," even as consumer spending demonstrates resilience against inflationary pressures.

"Consumers appear to remain confident and cautious at the same time, with consumer confidence indexes sliding to multi-year lows while consumer spending continues to be robust," Hackett said.

For sourcing directors, that split cuts both ways. Import volumes suggest retailers committed to pre-holiday inventory at planned levels rather than cutting orders. Sliding confidence indexes, however, argue for conservative open-to-buy into spring 2027 — which fits the forecast dip for January.

Which ports does this cover?

Global Port Tracker tracks the major US container gateways relevant to apparel and textile flows:

• West Coast: Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma
• East Coast: New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville
• Gulf Coast: Houston

The East and Gulf Coast mix matters for soft-goods shippers weighing transshipment routes and landed-cost calculations against West Coast transpacific services.

What decision does this force?

The numbers confirm the replenishment-only posture through December. Sourcing teams should treat January's projected 1.9% decline as the planning baseline for first-quarter 2027 factory bookings, not a signal of demand collapse. The strategic issue is calendar management: if peak seasons now start early and stretch long, order placement and production slots in origin markets need to move with them — or importers will keep paying for the mismatch.