US-India Trade Deal 'Close,' Rubio Says in Mumbai

Washington and New Delhi's trade agreement is as "close as you can be without having executed the agreement," Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Mumbai on Tuesday, ahead of talks with India's external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. For apparel and soft-goods sourcing teams watching India as a China-alternative, the signal matters: the deal sets the tariff floor on most Indian goods currently sitting at 18 percent.

"I think there's a small number of items left to wrap up, so I think that will happen shortly," Rubio said. The two diplomats also discussed strengthening bilateral ties in trade, energy, technology and defense.

What's actually left to resolve?

Two sticking points have held up a final signature. India has resisted opening politically sensitive agricultural sectors — poultry, dairy, rice and wheat — to U.S. competition. And its continued purchases of discounted Russian oil had exposed New Delhi to threatened tariffs of up to 100 percent, until President Donald Trump waived the impending sanctions on Friday.

The backdrop for goods shippers: the administration already imposed tariffs of up to 50 percent on most Indian goods in August 2025, including a penalty tied to the Russian oil purchases. A framework reached in February cut that rate to 18 percent. New Delhi is now pushing for terms that give its exporters a competitive edge over regional rivals Vietnam, China and Bangladesh — the same sourcing destinations most soft-goods buyers run comparisons against.

Why the legal picture keeps moving the goalposts

Experts say uncertainty over Trump's tariff authority has delayed a final agreement. A wave of lawsuits culminated in a Supreme Court ruling in February that undermined the reciprocal duties forming the basis of the deal.

"The February framework had offered to reduce India's reciprocal tariff… in return for substantial Indian concessions," Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative, said in a note earlier this month. "Once that tariff regime was struck down, the value of the U.S. offer became unclear."

That scrutiny isn't abstract. On Tuesday, the same day Rubio spoke, a food importer sued to block new tariffs on Canadian imports, arguing they represent another instance of presidential overreach already rejected by the courts. Trump levied 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods over the summer, citing what he called Canada's discriminatory treatment of U.S.-made cars, alcohol and dairy, and retaliation against earlier U.S. levies.

For sourcing directors, the lesson is straightforward: any India tariff number in a signed deal could still face courtroom tests before it settles.

Energy dimension

Rubio is on a six-day diplomatic tour of Uzbekistan and India. Before departing on Saturday, he told reporters in the U.S. that India had diversified its energy sources but still buys substantial volumes of Russian oil because "it's hard to pivot from one day to the next." He also called New Delhi an "important ally and partner."

On Tuesday in Mumbai, Rubio said he would encourage Reliance Industries to refine more Venezuelan crude and explore oil production opportunities in the South American nation. "They have done so in the past, and I think as more and more of Venezuelan oil comes online, that is something they can do," Rubio said. "We are going to go see what the holdup is and what opportunities exist."

The energy track matters indirectly to textile supply chains — Reliance is India's largest petrochemical player and a feedstock source for synthetic fibres — but the trade headline is the tariff line.

Bottom line for sourcing desks: hold off on locking India capacity shifts until the executed agreement lands and the 18 percent rate survives its inevitable legal test.