Sports Footwear Now 58% of US Sales as Fashion Cycle Turns: Jefferies

Sports footwear now accounts for 58 percent of U.S. footwear sales, up from 50 percent in 2021, but Jefferies analyst Blake Anderson says the category's dominance is peaking as a multi-year rotation toward dress shoes takes hold.

Anderson hosted a call Tuesday with two Euromonitor fashion experts — Jitong Li, consultant, North America, fashion, and Marguerite LeRolland, global insight manager, fashion — to map the shift. His core finding: "the athleisure era is fading and footwear is gradually shifting toward a more polished, dressed-up look," he wrote in his report.

How the cycle has moved

The data behind the call shows three distinct phases. From 2016 to 2021, the athleisure boom squeezed value and mall footwear. From 2021 to 2026, sneakers, comfort and casual work demand led while dress and fashion styles declined. Athletic casual — hoodies, leggings and chunky running sneakers — peaked between 2021 and 2024.

Euromonitor's experts place the bridge period — track jackets, wide-leg trousers and low-profile sport shoes — in 2025. The rising trend for 2026 is polished casual: a blazer over a tee, pleated trousers, and loafers or ballet flats.

The rotation will take several years, with footwear leading and apparel following more slowly. The Euromonitor analysts said footwear shifts should drive the broader fashion change, not the reverse.

What the search data shows

Search volumes track the turn. Dressy apparel searches are up 4 percent, while athleisure searches are down 8 percent, according to Anderson. The technical outdoor brand Arc'teryx saw searches rise 30 percent, outpacing total apparel growth of 3.6 percent. Athleisure brands Lululemon and Athleta saw searches fall between 8 percent and 11 percent.

Denim's current strength offers another signal of the move away from athleisure, the Jefferies analyst said.

Ballet flats lead the silhouette shift, joined by mary janes as the new "go-to" versatile shoe. Consumers want lighter, lower-priced styles that work across occasions. Boots are becoming a selective purchase, and cowboy boot searches are down 8 percent from prior years.

That pattern already shows in wholesale results. When Steven Madden Ltd. reported third-quarter earnings for the period ended Sept. 30 last Thursday, chief executive officer Edward R. Rosenfeld said on the conference call that the flagship Steve Madden brand performed strongly in booties and heels while tall shaft boot sales declined.

How big is the market at stake?

The global footwear market stands at $417 billion and is forecast to grow 5.4 percent in 2026. U.S. footwear is roughly a $95 billion market, one-fifth of the $457 billion combined U.S. apparel and footwear market. U.S. sports footwear is expected to keep outperforming through 2030 on sustained consumer focus on health, wellness and lifestyle.

Sneaker brand shares are still moving. Hoka and On are reaching scale and their growth rates are slowing in 2026, while Asics accelerates to 15 percent growth. Legacy lifestyle sneaker brands remain in reset mode.

What should sourcing teams do?

Anderson's recap points to an opening for legacy players. "The opportunity for legacy players to win by refreshing their styles, with more leading players to layer fashion into legacy sport styles," he wrote. He added: "we'd also put Vans in this bucket from our coverage as they innovate classic silhouettes."

For buyers, the implication is direct. Order books built around chunky sneakers and tall boots need rebalancing toward loafers, ballet flats and mary janes over the next several seasons — and factory capacity for dress-shoe construction, from lasted uppers to leather finishing, will face new demand as the rotation builds.