Saucony and Merrell seen leading Wolverine's third-quarter results

Telsey Advisory Group expects Wolverine World Wide to generate $499 million in third-quarter revenue, while management estimates a roughly $50 million gross tariff headwind for fiscal 2026.

Revenue would rise 6.1% year on year, just below the $500 million consensus and within Wolverine’s $495 million to $500 million guidance range.

Dana Telsey, chief investment officer at TAG, expects 45 cents in earnings per share, one cent below the 46-cent consensus but at the high end of the 42-to-45-cent guide.

TAG also forecasts 8.0% growth for the active business, with Saucony rising mid-teens and Merrell high-single digits.

What do analysts expect from each brand?

UBS analyst Mauriceo Serna forecasts a two-cent third-quarter earnings-per-share beat. He expects an in-line fourth-quarter outlook. He sees a solid quarter led by Saucony and Merrell. A larger beat and raised outlook remain possible if momentum holds.

His brand estimates are:

• Saucony: $153 million in sales, up 15% year on year.
• Merrell: $176 million in sales, up 5%, following 10% growth in the second quarter.
• Sweaty Betty: $43 million, down 3%, as the US reset continues.
• Work: $106 million, flat year on year.

Merrell’s slower forecast still assumes US hiking share gains. Serna cites the Moab 3 and Moab Speed 2, which continue to perform well in hiking. The Agility Peak 6 supports trail-running momentum. He expects Merrell to keep taking share despite tougher comparisons.

Saucony’s estimate rests partly on recent launches of the Endorphin Elite 3, Triumph 24 and Hurricane 26. Serna expects lifestyle demand to benefit from collaborations with Studio Nicholson, Engineered Garments, Minted New York and Westside Gunn. The brand’s city strategy in London, Paris and Berlin also builds momentum. Serna expects growth across performance and lifestyle. International markets should lead.

Demand indicators support that forecast, though they do not prove sales conversion. UBS’s Google analysis found broad-based Merrell momentum in the third quarter. US searches rose 14% year on year. UK searches rose 54%. Saucony’s UK searches rose 135% over the same period.

Industry data put Saucony’s US website visits up 7%. European visits rose 66%. Serna says these points support momentum across Wolverine’s active brands. They also reinforce his growth conviction. Improving inventory health and a better marketplace response suggest Wolverine’s turnaround continues to gain traction.

How large is the tariff exposure?

Telsey said: “Management continues to estimate an approximately $50 million gross tariff headwind for Fiscal Year 2026, with most of the exposure being offset through pricing actions, supply chain initiatives, product cost savings, and other mitigation efforts.”

The company’s outlook assumes no recovery of $36 million in previously paid tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. Telsey and Williams Trading analyst Sam Poser both identify potential refunds as upside. Neither estimate identifies sourcing countries, tariff rates, product classifications or supplier allocations.

That missing detail matters. The estimates do not show which factories or buyers absorb the gross cost. Nor do they show whether pricing protects factory margins. A refund also depends on eligibility and timing. Neither forecast specifies either factor. Poser believes Wolverine is likely to meet guidance, with refunds offering possible additional support.

What could change the earnings range?

Serna says Saucony’s performance footwear remains strong. Improved products across the Endorphin, Hurricane, Guide and Ride franchises continue to strengthen sales. He sees $150 price points for the Endorphin Azura, Guide and Ride as commercially promising. Asics, Brooks and Hoka constrain Saucony’s push into specialty running.

Poser offers a more skeptical view of lifestyle footwear. He expects Merrell’s performance and lifestyle assortment to improve. The brand needs a more energized demand-creation effort to support shoes such as the Relay, he says. That work must come before the trend moves on.

Sweaty Betty remains the harder execution test. Poser believes a spring 2027 apparel test using Sweaty Betty’s expertise could foreshadow a stable brand with sustainable growth. He also raises the possibility of consolidating Sweaty Betty into Saucony. Poser praises the brand’s product quality and design. Building against Lululemon, Alo, Vuori and Beyond Yoga, he says, “makes for some heavy lifting.”

New work technologies in traditional and western work styles, plus a small lifestyle collection, could drive sequential improvements this year.

What does this change for sourcing and compliance teams?

For buyers, the near-term numbers strengthen the case for monitoring Wolverine’s active-brand supply base, not for assuming a sourcing shift. No forecast discloses order volumes, factory headcounts or changes in sourcing country. The brand-level sales targets remain analyst estimates. They are not confirmed supplier commitments.

Sourcing teams should seek country-by-product tariff mapping. They should also require evidence behind the claimed pricing, supply-chain and product-cost mitigation. Compliance teams should track any IEEPA refund claim. They should not include the $36 million in base-case savings. The practical result is clearer demand for supplier-level cost visibility. The reports do not yet justify changing landed-cost assumptions.