Midterm Sweep Puts Tariffs Back on the Ballot, Not on the Shelf

Democrats flipped both the House and Senate on Tuesday, and the tariff regime that has driven apparel and footwear costs since 2025 will face its first legislative counterattack — without collapsing. That is the concrete outcome for sourcing teams watching Washington this week.

The election swept Democratic candidates through districts that stunned forecasters: North and South Carolina, Kansas, Georgia, Texas, Michigan, Ohio and Maine. Gubernatorial races produced upsets for Republicans as well. Voters connected trade policy to prices, according to Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA).

What does the vote change for importers?

Very little, immediately. Josh Teitelbaum, senior counsel at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, told Sourcing Journal the result "means little concrete change because the president will continue to lead on trade policy." Congress has delegated significant enforcement and negotiation authority to the executive, and this president, in Teitelbaum's words, has "taken that authority and run with it."

The numbers behind voter frustration are concrete. September's Consumer Price Index report pushed inflation to 3.7 percent, well above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. Lamar noted apparel and footwear prices were flat or deflationary for the previous 15 to 20 years; the last two years reversed that trend. Transportation, cargo fees, energy costs and duties all fed the increase.

"When you have an economy that is so dependent on imported goods, particularly in our sector where 97 percent is imported, you absolutely are going to be raising the price with tariffs," Lamar said. He described a president who "likes the word 'tariffs' and hates the word 'affordability'" — the opposite of the electorate.

The February court invalidation of the IEEPA tariffs compounded the confusion rather than resolving it. Importers of record became eligible for refunds, but many then had to pay Section 122 or Section 301 duties, or reserve funds for future Section 301 actions. Consumers saw refunds, not the replacement tariffs, Lamar said, which "builds the opportunity for frustration" with brands and government alike.

Which repeal bills are in play?

In September, Senate Democrats introduced the End Trump's Tariff Tax Act. It would invalidate the forced-labor tariffs imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and repeal the 50 percent duties on Canadian goods imposed under Section 338 of the Trade Act of 1930 — duties Teitelbaum called "incredibly unpopular in key midterm swing states like Michigan and Maine."

No repeal bill is drafted yet; Teitelbaum placed the effort in early development. He expects acceleration in 2027, once Democrats control both chambers. The president will likely veto anything that passes, so the binding question is whether enough Republicans will override. For Democrats, Teitelbaum said, it is "kind of a win-win": enact the repeal, or tie congressional Republicans to an unpopular policy.

He expects no moderation on new duties. "He has a personal commitment to imposing tariffs, and they are central to his administration's plan to change the world trading order," Teitelbaum said. The administration also reads gas, housing and healthcare costs as the dominant affordability problems, not incremental tariff-driven price increases.

The 2028 primary calendar shapes the longer game. Congressional votes on repeal will inform party platforms, and whoever enters the Oval Office on Jan. 21, 2029 inherits what Teitelbaum called "the thicket of tariffs."

Lamar pointed to precedent for durable bipartisan trade law: the African Growth and Opportunity Act, signed by President Bill Clinton in May 2000 against an all-red Congress, has survived 26 years with one brief lapse last year. "Trade policy functions best when it is durable," he said.

What happened in textile counties?

Kim Glas, president and CEO of the National Council of Textile Organizations (NCTO), said textile-producing counties "swung pretty wildly from the presidential election." South Carolina elected Annie Andrews, its first Democratic female senator, carrying Greenville County — once the "Textile Capital of the World" and home to Milliken & Co. operations. In North Carolina, Democrats improved by 25 points in Gaston County and 21 points in Yadkin County over 2024; Rabun County, Georgia, moved 15 points.

The domestic sector's distress is measurable: 44 textile plants lost over the past three years, according to Glas, hollowing out tax bases in production communities. Energy prices driven by Middle East conflicts have raised factory operating costs, while inflation in food and necessities has depressed consumer buying.

Glas did not call for abandoning tariffs. They remain useful against "unfair or predatory trade practices" from offshore producers, she said. Her demand: "Democrats and Republicans need to work together to make sure that the trade policy is actually achieving results."

For sourcing teams, the decision is straightforward. Plan on the existing tariff structure through at least 2027, track the End Trump's Tariff Tax Act as it moves from outline to bill text, and read the 2028 primary field for the first credible signal of rollback.