US apparel and soft goods importers sourcing from India face a sharply tighter fourth-quarter shipping market on India–North America services, after carrier network cuts removed as much as 30% of vessel capacity on the trade just as Indian exports to the US surge.

The squeeze is most acute on the US East Coast lane. Mediterranean Shipping Company withdrew its Indus Express service in May; Ocean Network Express followed two months later, replacing its West India North America service with a redesigned India North America Express loop. Freight forwarder OEC Group said Wednesday that the two moves left shippers competing for a smaller pool of slots, with longer booking lead times and more cargo rollovers feeding into higher container prices.

OEC estimates MSC's withdrawal alone removed 20% to 25% of market capacity, with ONE's restructuring cutting a further 2% to 5%.

"Carriers have become much more aggressive about managing supply," said Craig Lind, manager of OEC Group's Seattle branch. "Suspending services and blanking sailings has dramatically reduced available capacity and put upward pressure on freight rates."

The numbers bear that out. S&P Global data put India-to-US East Coast spot rates at roughly $11,000 per 40-foot container as of September 22 — up 461% from the $1,960 average on May 8.

DHL Global Forwarding echoed the assessment in its September ocean freight market update, saying demand on the Indian subcontinent-to-US lane exceeds available capacity and is keeping rates elevated, with Asian port congestion and vessel detours further constraining effective capacity.

Equipment and gateway pressure

Through September, premier carrier sailings from western India were "largely sold out," according to UK-based forwarder Metro Global's market note on Wednesday, with 40-foot equipment "especially scarce" at Jawaharlal Nehru Port (Nhava Sheva). Container shortages have also been reported at inland container depots across northern India.

The cargo backdrop driving the squeeze is strong. India's merchandise exports to the US jumped 21.8% year over year to $8.4 billion in August, according to India's Commerce Ministry. India's overall exports climbed 26.1% that month to $43.8 billion.

The gateways are feeling the volume. Nhava Sheva handled a record 831,956 TEUs in August, up 19.5% year over year. Mundra Port set its own record of 819,046 TEUs, up 12.9%, according to operator Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone.

Congestion is building accordingly. Kuehne+Nagel's port update for the week of September 23–29 shows average vessel waiting time at Mundra at 1.57 days, up from one day in each of the three preceding weeks; the forwarder classed Mundra as heavily disrupted from the week ending September 22. Nhava Sheva averaged 1.67 days, easing from a 2.2-day peak in the week ending September 15.

The bottleneck extends beyond India. Flexport's September 17 market update identified the South India–Sri Lanka-to-US East Coast corridor as the most constrained route, noting carriers had cut booking intake and omitted Colombo calls as backlogs built at the transshipment hub.

Carriers redeploy — and surcharge

Other carriers are picking up some of the slack. Maersk has begun deploying eight vessels of roughly 9,000 TEUs on its MECL India–US East Coast service, sequentially replacing ships in the 6,000- to 8,000-TEU range, the Journal of Commerce reported. The first upsized vessel, the 9,000-TEU Maersk San Cristobal, called Nhava Sheva on September 21, with additional larger ships expected later this year. The JOC report said the larger vessels could add roughly 1,000 to 1,500 TEUs of weekly capacity starting in November — a fraction of what MSC and ONE removed.

Maersk itself acknowledges the gap. Its September North America market update said demand from India, the Middle East and Africa into North America remains strong while capacity is limited, and advised customers to book at least six weeks ahead. The MECL service has resumed Suez Canal transits, cutting transit times by eight days.

CMA CGM's India America Express (INDAMEX) remains a weekly service with an 11-vessel fleet, calling Nhava Sheva and Mundra before serving New York, Norfolk, Savannah and Charleston. The carrier plans to add a direct call at Canada's Port of Halifax from November.

Both carriers are pricing the scarcity. Effective Thursday, Maersk applied an $11,650-per-container peak season surcharge from northwest India to US East and Gulf Coast destinations. The same day, CMA CGM implemented a $10,000 surcharge for Indian Subcontinent and Bangladesh cargo to the US East and Gulf Coasts.

For sourcing teams, the calculus is now straightforward. With East Coast spot rates above $11,000 per FEU before surcharges, equipment scarce at Nhava Sheva and northern Indian depots, and Maersk advising six-week booking lead times, order planning for India-bound spring programmes needs freight locked in earlier — or volumes shifted to lanes and ports where capacity still exists. The roughly 1,000–1,500 TEUs of weekly relief arriving in November will not close a 20%-plus capacity gap on its own.