Gartner predicts that just 5 percent of organizations implementing supply chain automation will make at least 10 percent of their planning decisions autonomously by the end of the decade. The forecast, drawn from the firm's surveys and client interactions, lands despite substantial ongoing AI spending across manufacturing and retail supply chains.

For apparel and soft goods sourcing teams, the prediction speaks directly to how planning technology budgets will be spent through 2030: on tools that support and augment human planners rather than replace them.

Autonomy confined to routine decisions

Gartner draws a hard line between AI that supports decisions through insights and AI that automates the decision itself. Buse Aras, director analyst in Gartner's supply chain practice, said readiness does not follow from investment.

"Spending millions on supply chain planning automation can expand technical capabilities, but investment alone does not create AI readiness," Aras said.

Leaders must set technology and talent foundations before scaling AI-enabled planning, he noted. Without them, organizations "risk funding technology that does not improve the planning decisions that matter most."

The outlook keeps humans in charge of consequential supply chain operations. AI will handle delegated tasks considered less critical.

"We still expect substantial investment in AI-enabled planning, but most organizations initially use AI to support or augment decisions rather than making them autonomous," Aras said. "Full autonomy will remain concentrated in routine, high-frequency and lower-risk decisions because data readiness, system integration, trust and accountability remain as barriers, while complex and strategic decisions will continue to require human oversight."

Returns remain elusive

Gartner's August survey of 394 supply chain professionals at companies with revenue of at least $250 million found that more than half of supply chain officers cannot quantify their return on AI investment, despite significant spending already committed.

MIT's landmark study on generative AI last year points the same direction. Enterprises have funnelled $40 billion into the technology, yet 95 percent of organizations report no returns so far.

Suppliers of planning software tell a different story

Not everyone shares the analyst's caution. Software company Kinaxis surveyed more than 2,000 supply chain leaders across nine markets, including the US, earlier this year. Two-fifths of respondents — 41 percent — expect autonomous supply chains at scale to become their operating model within one to two years.

That confidence comes with a governance gap. Only one in eight organizations surveyed by Kinaxis has AI governance fully embedded.

The sourcing decision

For soft goods buyers and planning directors, the Gartner forecast argues for sequencing: fix data readiness, system integration and planner skills before funding autonomous decision tools. Budgets aimed at demand forecasting and replenishment automation for high-frequency, low-risk decisions are the likeliest near-term bets. Strategic sourcing allocations, capacity commitments and supplier selection will remain human-led through 2030 — and vendors promising full autonomy inside two years should be evaluated against that reality.