Air cargo demand between Asia and North America surged 13.2 percent in August, making the trans-Pacific lane the fastest-growing of any major corridor tracked by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and tightening capacity just as apparel and retail shippers enter fourth-quarter peak season.

The lane accounted for 23.5 percent of global industry cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs) in August, extending a seven-month growth streak. Global air cargo capacity, meanwhile, declined 0.1 percent year over year — an imbalance that is already visible on the ground.

Dimerco's October Asia Pacific Freight Report describes air capacity to the U.S. as "tight" from most Asian origins, with rates firming for flights into Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York. The forwarder expects pressure to build through the fourth quarter, driven by e-commerce, seasonal retail, technology, AI infrastructure and semiconductor cargo.

"Bookings look quiet right now, but that's the calm before the door opens," Kathy Liu, Dimerco's vice president of global sales and marketing, said in the report.

What is driving the trans-Pacific squeeze?

Dimerco identifies three converging pressures:

• Tariff clarity: the forwarder expects greater certainty on the tariff environment to release China-U.S. shipments that shippers have held back, just as trans-Pacific space tightens.
• Ocean-to-air modal shift: ocean freight congestion has become severe enough to push cargo toward air, particularly on trans-Pacific and intra-Asia routes.
• Fuel costs: jet fuel averaged $157 per barrel in August, 79.2 percent higher than a year earlier and the highest August reading in 13 years, according to IATA. The benchmark rose 8.3 percent from July.

North American carriers posted the strongest regional demand growth at 6.6 percent in August even as their capacity fell 2.5 percent. Globally, demand rose 4.4 percent against the capacity slippage, lifting the industrywide cargo load factor by two percentage points to 46 percent.

The fuel spike has fed through to pricing. Global air cargo yields rose 1.3 percent month over month in August and stood 24.9 percent above the year-ago level.

"Strong demand and higher load factors helped airlines to recoup some of the exceptionally high fuel costs," said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA's senior vice president of sustainability and chief economist. "Yields rose month-on-month for the first time since April, while global goods trade growth continues. Both are positive signs as the year-end peak season comes into view."

How is EU customs policy reshaping e-commerce flows?

While the trans-Pacific market tightens, China's e-commerce air cargo volumes fell 16 percent year over year in August — the steepest annual decline recorded by aviation and logistics consultancy Aevean since its launch in October 2024.

The contraction stems primarily from a 40 percent drop in China-to-Europe e-commerce volumes. Flows to Asia-Pacific, North and Latin America, the Middle East and South Asia were flat or declined modestly; Africa was the only major growth market, up 71 percent from a small base.

The policy trigger sits in Brussels. On July 1, the EU removed its duty-free de minimis exemption for shipments worth 150 euros and introduced a 3-euro customs tax on low-value imports. IATA said the change coincided with a slowdown in Europe-Asia air cargo growth: demand on the lane still rose 3.1 percent in August, unchanged from July, but well below the double-digit growth rates of the preceding 11 months. The association said the new duty "may have tempered e-commerce flows into Europe."

The broader Europe-Asia market keeps expanding despite the e-commerce contraction. The lane represented 21.5 percent of global industry CTKs in August and has now recorded 42 consecutive months of growth.

What should sourcing teams do now?

Dimerco's report signals where the operational shifts are landing. In East China, airlines are moving capacity into Frankfurt and Amsterdam as volumes soften there, while Asia-Europe spot rates continue to fall as carriers resume Suez Canal transits. Air capacity from the Netherlands, Germany and the U.K. to Asia is soft with stable rates; trans-Atlantic capacity is in an upturn with rates rising.

For sourcing directors, the split market demands a split response. Shippers routing China- or Asia-origin goods to North American DCs for Q4 delivery face firming rates and shrinking belly and freighter space, and should book early or weigh the tariff-timing question against spot exposure. Those with European distribution can find relief on Asia-Europe lanes — but compliance teams should verify that low-value import consignments now account for the 3-euro customs tax introduced July 1 before recalculating landed cost.